000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N105W TO 08N115W TO 
07N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM 
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS WEST 
OF 135W.

 
...DISCUSSION...                                       

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LAST 
NIGHT. OBSERVATIONS FROM STATION MINATITLAN (MMMT) ON THE 
NORTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS STILL SHOW 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH 
GUSTS TO 30 KT...INDICATING ONGOING STRONG FLOW IS LIKELY 
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FRI. THE 
LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A REINFORCING PUSH NORTH 
OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW A NEW ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW DOWN NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1640 UTC. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W IS STARTING 
TO STALL AND WEAKEN. THE SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH HAS LIFTED FARTHER EAST...MOVING THROUGH 125W NORTH OF 
24N. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT 
LEAVING AN AREA OF NW SWELL TO 8 FT IN ITS WAKE N OF 28N. THE 
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY FRI. 

OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA INITIATED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER 
THIS MORNING. THIS LINE SHIFTED SW AGAINST LIGHT TO MODERATE SW 
FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS W OF 100W. ALONG WITH 
FAVORABLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE...THE CONVERGENCE OF THE NE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE SW 
GRADIENT FLOW IS SUSTAINING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN