000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU MAY 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N90W TO 06N100W TO 
08N115W TO 07N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N120W TO 05N125W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND BETWEEN 100W 
AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 

 
...DISCUSSION...                                       

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LAST 
NIGHT. THIS HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 
KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FRI. THE LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED 
HOWEVER...AS A REINFORCING PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW A 
NEW ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW DOWN NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1640 UTC. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W IS STARTING TO 
STALL AND WEAKEN. THE SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
HAS LIFTED FARTHER EAST...MOVING THROUGH 125W NORTH OF 24N. THE 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT LEAVING AN AREA 
OF NW SWELL TO 8 FT IN ITS WAKE N OF 28N. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED 
TO DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY FRI. 

OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA INITIATED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER 
THIS MORNING. THIS LINE SHIFTED SW AGAINST LIGHT TO MODERATE SW 
FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS W OF 100W. ALONG WITH 
FAVORABLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE...THE CONVERGENCE OF THE NE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE SW 
GRADIENT FLOW IS SUSTAINING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN