000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU MAY 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 9N95W TO 6N105W TO 7N120W. ITCZ 
FROM 7N120W TO 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 85W-88W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 98W-104W AND WITHIN 160 NM S OF AXIS FROM 106W-115W AND 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 135W-140W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IS N OF 25N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH E 
OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 21N125W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 6N110W IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 100W-115W.

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG...20-30 KT...NLY 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FRI. NLY 
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OF FRI.

THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...AND NLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT...WITH 
SEAS TO 8 FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT FRI. 

WEAK COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS 
FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR NW SWELL TO 8 FT N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. 
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON FRI AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE. 
OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS 
RESULTING WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$ 
DGS