000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC THU MAY 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W TO 10N87.5W TO 
06N103W TO 07N117W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO 05N125W TO BEYOND 04N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE PACIFIC COASTS 
BETWEEN 81W AND 95W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 97W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 
240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 114W. 

 
...DISCUSSION...                                       

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY 
SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND WAS 
DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HAS 
ALLOWED HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS 
TO PUNCH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT...AND 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS HAVE INITIALLY BEEN 
NW TO N AT 20-30 KT AND EXTEND LESS THAN 150 NM THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THIS 
MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS 
THE HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SHORT 
DURATION OF THE GAP WIND EVENT WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHT GROWTH TO 
BARELY 8 FT...SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKING 
AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING SURGE WILL 
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PEAK NEAR GALE FORCE LATE SAT AFTERNOON 
AND NIGHT.
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS 
NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS HAD SPAWNED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS 
ALOFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO 
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. A 998 MB LOW PRES CENTER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR 39N140W THIS 
MORNING...WHERE A RECENT ASCAT PASS DEPICTED NWLY WINDS TO 
AROUND 20 KT EXTENDING JUST INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SEAS HAVE REACHED TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL. 
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING 
DIFFUSE LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS FARTHER TO THE 
NORTHEAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS 
MORNING AS AREAS OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO 
CONVERGE ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...WHICH NOW EXTENDS 
WWD TO NEAR 117W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS AND TO THE 
N OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W...AND IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE 
UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST THERE. THESE 
FAVORABLE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS E OF 110W AND EXTEND EAST AND NORTHEAST 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR SE MEXICO.

$$ 
STRIPLING