000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010255
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC THU MAY 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 04N100W TO 
08N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N120W TO 10N125W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 11OW AND 115W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                       

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGHING OVER THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS ALLOWING STRONG TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE SW GULF. THESE WINDS 
WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT 
EVENING...DELIVERING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. PEAK 
WINDS AT COATZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS WERE 
NEAR 30 KT AT 00 UTC...AN INDICATION OF THE GRADIENT FLOW THAT 
WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TOMORROW 
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH 
PRES NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SHORT DURATION OF 
THE GAP WIND EVENT WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHT GROWTH TO BARELY 8 
FT...SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT LATE TOMORROW. LOOKING AHEAD...A 
REINFORCING SURGE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND 
FLOW SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N137W TO 28N140W IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE THROUGH 
THE AREA. THIS HAD SPAWNED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS 
AGO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE 
AREA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 19 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 
28N. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE STALLING 
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE THU AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS FARTHER 
TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SITUATED OVER THE MONSOON 
TROUGH EAST OF 100W...SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO 
WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 10N...AND NORTH OF A BROAD COUNTER CLOCKWISE 
CIRCULATION ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EQUATOR. THIS IS ENHANCING A 
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SIMILARLY 
FARTHER WEST...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH ALONG 110W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 103W. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN