000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 05N100W TO 08N110W TO 
07N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO 06N135W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 92W...AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                       

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGHING OVER THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS ALLOWING STRONG TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE SW GULF. THIS WILL 
PUNCH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THIS 
EVENING...DELIVERING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRES NORTH OF 
THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SHORT DURATION OF THE GAP WIND 
EVENT WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHT GROWTH TO BARELY 8 FT...SUBSIDING 
BELOW 8 FT LATE TOMORROW. LOOKING AHEAD...A REINFORCING SURGE 
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND FLOW SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS PASSING SE OF 30N140W ASSOCIATED WITH A 
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE THROUGH THE 
AREA. THIS HAD SPAWNED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY 
APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT 
WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING 
DIFFUSE LATE THU AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS FARTHER TO THE 
NORTHEAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SITUATED OVER THE MONSOON 
TROUGH EAST OF 100W...SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO 
WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 10N...AND NORTH OF A BROAD COUNTER CLOCKWISE 
CIRCULATION ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EQUATOR. THIS IS ENHANCING A 
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SIMILARLY 
FARTHER WEST...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH ALONG 110W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 103W. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN