000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
10N75W TO 10N78W...THEN TURNS SW ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 09N80W...TO 07N84W TO 08N91W TO 
04N100W TO 05N106W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A 
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES NW TO 
08N117W...THEN DIPS SW TO 03N131W...THEN NW TO 05N140W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N80W TO 09N87W TO 
04N100W...WELL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 
09N102W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 07N109W TO 07N118W TO 07N127W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N123W. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONES AREA NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 08N136W... 
08N117W AND 12N98W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-
STATIONARY NEAR 22N124W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 
11N127W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100-140W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SOME OF THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION FANS OUT SOUTHWARD ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 117-140W. BUT UPPER MOISTURE IS ALSO 
ADVECTED N ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-29N BETWEEN 98-
115W...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TURNING E ACROSS MOST OF 
MEXICO AND NOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
TO THE S OF 13N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AS WELL THE ALREADY MENTIONED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 13N105W. THE GRADIENT IS 
RELAXING NE OF THE RIDGE WITH NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS NOTED 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS 
OF 7-9 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXING LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG 
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO 
RELAX TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ON WED WITH SEAS 
SUBSIDED TO BELOW 8 FT AS WELL. 

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ON WED ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE 
WATERS FROM 28-32N WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND 
WASH OUT ALONG 32N133W TO 23N140W ON THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WATERS TO THE N OF 26N WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED 
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT IN AREAS OF LONG NW FETCH. 
THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX ON THU AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY SUNRISE ON FRI. EXPECTING NE WINDS TO BRIDGE INTO 
NORTHERN SEBASTIAN BAY THROUGH LATE THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WILL MAX 
AT 15 KT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO A 20 KT MAX ON WED NIGHT AND 
THU NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI NIGHT 
THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT...AND A 20-30 KT EVENT ON SAT NIGHT INTO 
SUNRISE ON SUN.

$$
NELSON