000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE APR 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN CONTINUES W TO 10N91W...THEN DIPS SW TO 05N106W...THEN W TO 06N112W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES NW TO 07N116W...THEN TURNS SW TO 01N135W...AND FINALLY NW TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 10N89W. TWO CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OF 09N102W AND 12N106W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N113W TO 03N130W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N137W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N85W TO 08N98W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 08N136W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 24N132W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE FORMED ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR 30N123W TODAY. A THIRD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N116W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE TROPICS TO NEAR 08N125W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST AT 14N91W WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 12N100W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 22N124W IN THE CENTER OF THE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONES...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 11N126W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100-140W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION FANS OUT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 117-135W. BUT MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED N ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-28N BETWEEN 101-118W...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TURNING E ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE S OF 13N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AS WELL THE ALREADY MENTIONED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N105W. THE GRADIENT IS RELAXING NE OF THE RIDGE WITH NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXING LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ON WED WITH SEAS SUBSIDED TO BELOW 8 FT AS WELL. A SMALL AREA OF MIXING LONG PERIOD NW...SE AND SW SWELL IS RESULTING IN SEAS 7-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 01N120W TO 03.4S95W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON WED ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 28-32N WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND WASH OUT ALONG 32N133W TO 23N140W ON THU. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS TO THE N OF 28N WILL SPREAD S TO 26N ON THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT IN AREAS OF LONG NW FETCH. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX ON THU AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNRISE ON FRI. EXPECTING NE WINDS TO BRIDGE INTO NORTHERN SEBASTIAN BAY THROUGH LATE THU. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WILL MAX AT 15 KT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO A 20 KT MAX ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT...AND A 20-30 KT EVENT ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNRISE ON SUN. $$ NELSON