000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE APR 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 06N96W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS...AND CONTINUES W THROUGH 07N110W TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 02-09N BETWEEN 84-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N113W TO 07N118W TO 03N133W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 08.5N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N133W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 08N141W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO WELL BEYOND 32N127W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS STATIONARY AT 22N128W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 13N126W...THEN SE TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N112W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE W PORTION FROM THAT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 10N103W WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFYING N TO A CREST AT 29N117W. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SW OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115-133W. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION FANS OUT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120-135W...A VERY DENSE MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVECTED N ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-24N BETWEEN 111-124W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TURNS E ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN 17-23N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E FROM THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AT 10N103W TO A CREST OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE N OF 12N...WHILE ENHANCING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 85-102W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 32N130W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A CREST LAST DEPICTED ON SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 15N106W. NE 20-25 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED TO THE S OF THE RIDGE FROM 09-14N BETWEEN 122-140W...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING LONG PERIOD NW...NE AND S SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED FROM 07N TO THE RIDGE ON TUE. THE GRADIENT IS ALSO RELAXING NE OF THE RIDGE WITH ONLY A 360 NM WIDE TONGUE OF 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 30N120W TO 21N114W. THESE NW WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF ISLAS CEDORAS. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ON TUE NIGHT...AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON WED. A SMALL AREA OF MIXING LONG PERIOD NW...SE AND SW SWELL IS RESULTING IN SEAS 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N122W TO 02N115W TO 3.4S107W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION ON WED ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 28-32N WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND WASH OUT ALONG 32N132W TO 25N138W ON WED. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N EARLY TONIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20- 30 KT ACROSS THE GULF TO THE N OF 27N ON TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT ON WED...THEN RELAX THROUGH THU WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT ON THU NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WILL MAX AT 15 KT TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO A 20 KT MAX ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT. $$ NELSON