000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281543 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON APR 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO DEFINITIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N102W TO 07N110W TO 05N131W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N137W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN S OF THE ITCZ 120 NM BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 480-600 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 15N114W TO 08N125W...WHERE A HEALTHY AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PRESENT ON THE NW SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NW HELPING TO PUMP UP AND FEED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AREA. ...DISCUSSION... AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS NEAR 32N131W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 18N108W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS WITH COMPONENTS OF SW AND NW SWELL. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 24 HOURS. THE MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8- 9 FT N OF 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W BY 48 HOURS...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE S CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM ROUGHLY 07N TO 10N W OF 120W. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. A SURROUNDING AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MERGING SW AND NW SWELL COVERS THE AREA FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 120W WITH COMBINED SEAS AT 8-10 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS. A SMALL AREA OF MIXED SWELL...IN MERGING CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...AT 8-9 FT COVERS THE WATERS SW-W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 7-8 FT WHILE CONTRACTING TO THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S99W TO 01S101W TO 01S120W BY 48 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...AN IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8-9 FT NEAR 30N140W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TRANQUIL HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE BY EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER NW MEXICO. MEANWHILE INVERTED TROUGHING WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RIDGING W OF THERE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO COMMENCE AROUND 12 UTC TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY LATE TUE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SPILLING SOUTHWARD TO 26N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 8-10 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N AND FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH AT LEAST WED AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. $$ LEWITSKY