000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280911 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON APR 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W TO 10N87W TO 06N101W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07.5N114W TO 06N128W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S AND 300 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 132W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN ENERGETIC DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS A BROAD BASE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW AND BEGINNING TO BREAK AWAY FROM MEAN TROUGH...FROM NEAR 29N117W TO A NEARLY STATIONARY MIDDLE TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 20N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONE S THEN SE TO NEAR 07N128W...AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. EQUATORIAL RIDGES PREVAIL BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THIS TROUGH...WHILE A MID LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED ON AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 29N133W. ALTHOUGH THIS COMPLEX PATTERN PRESENTLY FORMS A GENERAL BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 145W BY TUE NIGHT AND FORCE THE CURRENT PATTERN TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN THE CYCLONE ALONG 130W TO MOVE E-NE AND EVENTUALLY INLAND ACROSS MEXICO BY THU. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N131W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 16N110W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS EXTENDING S INTO THE AREA TO 25N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...PRODUCING 8-11 FT SEAS IN MERGING NW AND S SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH TUE MORNING AND MAINTAIN THE STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. BY TUE MORNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO INDUCE NWLY WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS...AND SPREAD S TO 26N BY TUE EVENING... GENERATING SEAS 6-9 FT. THESE STRONG NW WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY N OF 28N WED AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE S CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 120W. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. LIGHT WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA E OF 110W...WITH WEAK S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. FADING SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH PULSES OF NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 90W TO MAINTAIN SEAS 6 TO 10 FT...WHILE MODERATE SW SWELL IS MOVING E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND REACHING THE COASTS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE QUICKLY TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL REMAINS ACTIVE W OF 110W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LARGE POOLS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO COVERAGE S OF 11-12N...AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE. $$ STRIPLING