000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271522 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN APR 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N81W TO 06N107W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N107W TO 07N126W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 107W...WITHIN 240-300 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 10N110W TO 03N122W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM W NW OF A LINE FROM 11N120W TO 09N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 01S97W TO 00N101W...WHERE A WEAK AND ILL- DEFINED SECONDARY ITCZ MAY BE PRESENT. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 26N W OF 124W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 110W WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING UP FROM THE S AND BEING ADVECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING TO THE NE-E ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 26N EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N96W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 12N TO 122W AND EASTWARD INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ IS FLARING ON THE SW AND SE SIDES OF THE RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER NW MEXICO. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 31N141W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E THROUGH 31N127W THEN SE TO 20N110W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SOUTHWARD TO W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA (EXCEPT TO GALE FORCE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION) ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE S CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 07N TO 12N W OF 121W. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS N OF 07N AND W OF 110W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DECAYING THEREAFTER AND WITH A NEW SET OF REINFORCING NW SWELL ARRIVING BY 48 HOURS AS SEAS OF 8-11 FT COVERS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 19N112W TO 20N132W TO 30N140W. MORE PURELY CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL IS SPILLING NORTHWARD OF THE EQUATOR TO 02N SW-W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE AT 8-10 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. $$ LEWITSKY