000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN APR 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N81W 1009 MB TO 09.5N86W TO 05N94W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... CONTINUING ON TO 09N112W TO 07N122W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED S OF TROUGH TO 02.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 108W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED E ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ITS BASE NOW ALONG 104W ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH TUTT-LIKE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BASE SW ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO THEN W-SW TO AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED NEAR 20N132W....WITH TROUGH CONTINUING TO 21N143W. A BROAD AND DEEP LAYERED RIDGE NW OF THIS FEATURE WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO ALONG 144W...AND BUILDING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. S OF THE TROUGH...A 75-100 KT JET COULD BE SEEN TRANSPORTING CIRRUS INTO N CENTRAL MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS SW PORTIONS...S OF 20N ALONG ABOUT 135W....WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING STRONGLY DIVERGENT E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 127W. E OF THIS...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE PREVAILED FROM COLOMBIA TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N96W TO 10N110W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE TUTT VORTEX TO DIG S INTO THE BROAD TROUGH ALONG 135W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SHIFT NE...WHICH WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE BETWEEN 110W AND 126W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE AND SHIFT GRADUALLY W AND NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT SE THROUGH NW MEXICO AND MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND HAS BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA ALONG 25N. N-NW WINDS 20-25 KT ARE SPILLING S DOWN THE W COAST OF BAJA BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTEND 90 NM OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N145W ANCHORED A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING E AND SE INTO THE REGION TO 110W. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ZONE OF FRESH WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BROADEN AND EXTEND OUTWARD TO NEAR 118W. W TO SW WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE SHIFTED W TO NW AND DROPPED FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AND ARE LESS THAN 20 KT AT THIS TIME...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS N PORTIONS AND FALLING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS COMBINING WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS JUST N OF THE ITCZ TO PRODUCE FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 18-20N AND W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN HEMI S TO SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING...AND HAS PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOLWY FADE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS STRONG SWELL CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH PULSES OF NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE N PACIFIC...TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER ACROSS ALL BUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL DECAYS THROUGH TUE...SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE TRADEWIND ZONE...AND NE PORTIONS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK BUT PRONOUNCED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA E OF 105W AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 100W. $$ STRIPLING