000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 06N95W TO 05N100W TO 09N110W TO 07N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 
90W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...     

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 25N W 
OF130W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 110W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N E OF 110W OVER MEXICO. IN THE TROPICS 
ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 110W FROM 05N TO 20N. 

ON THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO 
NEAR 31N110W TO W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N115W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A SURFACE 
RIDGE IS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N W OF 110W. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 20 TO 
25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 28N 
AND 31N. THESE WIND AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN 06 HOURS. 

W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND N OF THE FRONT...WINDS 
ARE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER A SET OF NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG 
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
10 FT WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 15N110W 
TO 10N120W TO 06N140W TO 22N140W TO 30N135W TO 30N116W. THE 
FRONT WILL FULLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE SET OF NW SWELL CONTINUES 
TO PROPAGATE SE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
ITCZ TO THE S CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR COVERAGE ARE FORECAST 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL REFERENCED ABOVE IS 
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTS OF 
MEXICO ALL THE WAY S TO ECUADOR. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER 
BECOMING CONFINED TO S OF THE EQUATOR.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK BUT PRONOUNCED 
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA E OF 100W 
AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA AND THE 
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 85W.

$$ 
FORMOSA