000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262132 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N94W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 05N94W TO 06N100W TO 08N113W TO 07N120W TO 07N133W TO 
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...     

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W 
OF 110W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N 
E OF 110W OVER MEXICO. IN THE TROPICS ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N TO 
20N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 
110W FROM 05N TO 20N. 

ON THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO 
NEAR 31N112W TO 26N120W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N W OF 
110W. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 29N AND 31N. THESE WIND AND SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE IN 12 HOURS. 

W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND N OF THE FRONT...WINDS 
ARE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER A SET OF NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG 
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
10 FT N OF A LINE FROM 27N117W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME 
ILL-DEFINED AND DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN WHILE THE SET OF NW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE WHILE MERGING WITH THE SOUTHERLY 
SWELL...REACHING 110W BY 48 HOURS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE S 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 
130W AS INDICATED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE ALSO 
8-10 FT IN THIS AREA. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL AT 8-10 FT SURROUNDS 
THE TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 06N TO 24N W OF 120W. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THESE CONDITIONS OR COVERAGE ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL REFERENCED ABOVE IS 
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTS OF 
MEXICO ALL THE WAY S TO ECUADOR. THE EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER EXTENDS FROM 18N120W TO 20N110W TO 10N96W TO 02S91W TO 
02S88W TO 04N84W TO 04N81W TO 3.4S83W. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY 
DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER 
BECOMING CONFINED TO S OF THE EQUATOR.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK BUT PRONOUNCED 
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA E OF 100W 
AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA AND THE 
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 85W.

$$ 
FORMOSA