000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 06N93W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N93W    
TO 08N112W TO 05N124W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH E OF 86W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W...AND 
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 123W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM 
NW OF A SPEED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM 10N126W TO 06N132W.

...DISCUSSION...     

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA 
BORDER APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
TO 29N120W TO 25N140W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 116W ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH 
TO STRONG SW WINDS S OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HI-RES NAM MODEL 
GUIDANCE...WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY UP TO 8 FT. WINDS MAY INCREASE 
TO UP TO 30 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE 
LATE TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS AHEAD OF IT ALSO 
DISSIPATING AND SUBSIDING.

W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND N OF THE FRONT...WINDS 
ARE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER A SET OF NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG 
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
10 FT N OF A LINE FROM 27N117W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME 
ILL-DEFINED AND DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN WHILE THE SET OF NW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE WHILE MERGING WITH THE SOUTHERLY 
SWELL...REACHING 110W BY 48 HOURS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE S 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 
130W AS INDICATED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE ALSO 
8-10 FT IN THIS AREA. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL AT 8-10 FT SURROUNDS 
THE TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 06N TO 24N W OF 120W. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THESE CONDITIONS OR COVERAGE ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL REFERENCED ABOVE IS 
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTS OF 
MEXICO ALL THE WAY S TO ECUADOR. THE EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER EXTENDS FROM 21N120W TO 20N110W TO 07N91W TO 02S91W TO 
06N82W TO 00N80W. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER BECOMING CONFINED TO S 
OF THE EQUATOR.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK BUT PRONOUNCED 
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA E OF 100W 
AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA AND THE 
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 85W.

$$ 
LEWITSKY