000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260900 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT APR 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W TO 10.5N87W TO 07.5N93.5W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 08N100W TO 06.5N112W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE HAS SHIFTED E ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 28N117W THEN SW TO 21N147W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NW IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH NW TO N FLOW PRODUCING UPPER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE NW OF TROUGH W OF 125W. ZONAL FLOW PREVAIL S OF THE TROUGH TO 10-12N AND INTO ALL BUT SE MEXICO. A BROAD TROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA AND EXTENDS W-NW TO 90W....WITH SCATTERED ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA PULSING UDERNEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO NW PORTIONS THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N120W TO 26N140W. WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE NW SWELL INTO BOTH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY. TO THE NW OF THE FRONT...A 1030 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N154W...AND WAS BRIDGING ACROSS THE COLD FRONT AND INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 17N120W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT NWLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE PRESENT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26W AND EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 150 NM OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ACCELERATED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF DURING THIS TIME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NW AND AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TRADES OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS S OF 20N AND W OF 120W WITH 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE...SW...AND NW SWELL. AS THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE SHIFT E THROUGH MONDAY FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE S OF 20N TO THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W-120W. LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 23N THIS MORNING...AND IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS WATERS W OF 90W AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND SEAS 6 TO 9 FT E AND NE OF THE GALAPAGOS. THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL IS MERGING WITH NW SWELL ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS TO PRODUCE SEAS 6 TO 8 FT N OF 23N. THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN SEAS AT 8-10 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS AND REEFLINES THROUGH MONDAY. VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... STRONG AND WIDESPREAD RIP CURRENTS...AND COASTAL EROSION SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THIS EVENT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK BUT PRONOUNCED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA E OF 100W AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 85W. $$ STRIPLING