000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N94W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 07N94W TO 06N105W TO 07N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 80W...AND 
FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...     

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W 
OF 120W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W TO INCLUDE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND N MEXICO. 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS...ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 140W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 100W. 

ON THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 33N149W.  A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 
18N110W. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 
38N124W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NW CORNER 
ALONG 34N125W 30N134W 29N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT S OF 30N. THIS FRONT WILL HOWEVER 
USHER IN A NEW SWELL TRAIN N OF 20N AND W OF 112W OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST IN 48 HOURS N OF 
28N WITHIN 120 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT.
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES OVER THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 19N W OF 120W WITH 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN 
MIXED NE...SW...AND NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL DECREASE 
IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 8-10 FT COVERS THE WATERS   
S OF A LINE FROM 20N123W TO 10N95W TO 01S91W TO 02N84W TO 
03.4S80W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL HAS NOW REACHED SW 
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WILL REACH NORTHERN  
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE 
TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS 
OF 8-9 FT BECOMING CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA JUST S OF A LINE 
FROM 03.4S120W TO 00N100W TO 03.4S81W BY 48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 100W.

$$ 
FORMOSA