000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N91W TO 05N110W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF 
127W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 127W TO INCLUDE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
06N133W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 
130W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ AND 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. 
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO INCLUDE OVER  
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N139W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 
20N110W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED MOVE SW TO 30N145W AND LOOSEN THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS PRESENTLY FROM 
09N TO 20N W OF 130W AND FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W 
WITH NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...AN 
AREA OF WINDS AND SWELL IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PRESENTLY N OF 
25N E OF 126W NW TO N WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT 
IN NW SWELL. 
 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18 
SECONDS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE 
WIND FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA 
OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 130W AND S 
OF LINE FROM 13N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W BY THU MORNING...AND 
E OF 125W AND S OF LINE FROM 15N125W TO 17N110W TO 05N92W BY FRI 
MORNING. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS TO ABOUT 2N.  BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL 
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU 
NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA 
OF CORTEZ EARLY ON FRI...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE 
COAST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.   

$$ 
FORMOSA