000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N110W TO 09N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W... AND 
FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                       

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO 
26N130W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW 
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 
16N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE 
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF 128W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W. 
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 

ON THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N145W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. 
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 
32N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH 
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT 
INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF 
OF NORTHERN BAJA  CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED 
MORNING.
 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18 
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP 
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH 
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF 
THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS 
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22 
SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE 
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF 
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W. BASED 
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH 
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.
 
$$ 
FORMOSA