000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING 

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS 
MORNING FOLLOWED BY STORM FORCE WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL REACH 
THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING...THEN FUNNEL 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS AND RAPIDLY BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS 
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED 
AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH FURTHER TO 20 KT OR LESS WED EVENING. 

THE GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 
NE SWELL DOWNSTREAM INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...COVERING AN AREA 
FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT BY LATE 
THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N87W TO 07N98W. THE 
ITCZ REACHES FROM 07N98W TO 08N110W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
85W AND 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 30N130W TO SOUTH OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 
20N AND W OF 130W. ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THIS AREA. THE WEAK RIDGE WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. THE RIDGE WILL 
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...AND OCCASIONAL WINDS TO 25 KT WILL BE 
POSSIBLE WED AND THU. 

SHIP OBSERVATIONS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA INDICATE FRESH 
NW FLOW...FUNNELING BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES 
FARTHER EAST. THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS 
EAST THROUGH LATE TODAY. NW TO N SWELL WILL MOVE DOWN THE U.S. 
WEST COAST THROUGH WED...WITH SWELL TO 8 FT COVERING THE AREA N 
OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W BY LATE THU. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS 
ALLOWING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON LATER TODAY WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25 KT BY THIS 
AFTERNOON.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN