000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON APR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING 

WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST 
OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL 
REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 
GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON. 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER 
STRONG GALE FORCE OR EVEN MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY TUE EVENING. 
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT LIVED...BUT STRONG...GAP WIND 
EVENT WITH STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED 
MORNING...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED 
AFTERNOON. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N110W TO 05N100W. THERE 
ARE TWO ITCZ AXES. THE FIRST ITCZ REACHES FROM 05N100W TO 
07N115W TO 04N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. A SECOND ITCZ FROM 01S110W 
TO 03S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
PERSISTS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 85W TO 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FIRST ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 30N135W TO 
18N110W. THIS IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W. SEAS BARELY REACHING 
8 FT IN THIS AREA IN A MIX OF NW AND NE SWELL.

FARTHER WEST...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM 40N140W TO 
SOUTH OF HAWAII NEAR 13N160W. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET  
DIGGING EASTWARD OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC ALLOWING AN UPPER 
LOW TO CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH NEAR 23N145W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 
THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE 
OF THE WEEK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD N OF THE 
LOW...REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND ALLOWING TRADE WIND 
FLOW TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK. UPPER FORCING SE OF THE 
LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH 
RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN A LIMITING 
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NW WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT 
EAST ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN