000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132106
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN APR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N95W TO 08N106W TO 09N125W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W 
AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 30N131W TO 
17N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 130W. THE 
WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THIS AREA. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN 
SLIGHTLY...AND OCCASIONAL WINDS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
WILL ALLOW STRONG NW WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO TUESDAY AS THE 
HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE 
NEXT GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF 
THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT. THE FRONT 
WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING 
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON. 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG 
GALE FORCE BY TUE EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT 
LIVED...BUT STRONG...GAP WIND EVENT WITH STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS 
LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON. 
 
$$ 
AL