000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN APR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 06N95W TO 03N105W TO 03N110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-
90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE BETWEEN 09N105W TO 
09N110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE N OF 30N IS MOVING EAST THROUGH 
135W...AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH N OF 15N WELL W OF THE AREA 
NEAR 150W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 32N135W 
SEWD TO 17N110W...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH 
TRADES FROM 05N TO 10N W OF ABOUT 120W. PREVIOUS ALTIMETER DATA 
HIGHLIGHTED SEAS NEAR 8 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES...LIKELY 
DUE TO SWELLS WITH DERIVED FROM THE SE AND MIXING WITH THOSE 
FROM THE NW.                              
               
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NE OF 
HAWAII NEAR 25N145W EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO THE SOUTH OF STRONG 
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM NEAR 145W FROM 15N TO 25N...IN  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE RESULTING TIGHTENING GRADIENT 
WILL ALLOW FOR NE TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TO THE SW 
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE OVER AN AREA FROM 06N-14N W OF 132W 
BY EARLY MON...AND FROM 06N-14N W OF 131W BY EARLY TUE WITH SEAS 
TO 9 FT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE OF 
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN 
SECTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

FARTHER WEST...DIVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE W OF A SMALL 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE MOVING NE OVER MEXICO JUST E OF CABO 
CORRIENTES AND TO THE W OF A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE...ALSO MOVING 
NE...IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 16N106W IS COMBINING WITH MODEST 
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE 
TWO UPPER FEATURES IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
WILL ALLOW STRONG NW WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING EARLY MON AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY SPREAD S 
THROUGH THE GULF MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH PRES 
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN BY TUE THESE WINDS WILL BE 
SHORT-LIVED AS THEY THEN WILL RAPILDY DROP OFF TO 10-15 KT 
DURING TUE. 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TUE AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING 
THAT THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH GULF WITH INTENSITY IN THE 
GALE FORCE RANGE BEGINNING TUE NIGHT...AND INTO WED WITH SEAS 
QUICKLY BUILDING TO LARGE VALUES. 
 

$$ 
AGUIRRE