000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121558 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT APR 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 05N99W TO 07N106W TO 05N115W TO 05N123W TO 06N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W-118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W-110W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD N OF 25N BETWEEN 131W-139W...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SEWD JUST TO THEN N OF THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE LOW PRES HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM 20N120W TO OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST NEAR 17N105W. THIS HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 12N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 125W AS WAS EVIDENT IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 12N108W. UPPER FORCING RELATED TO THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AFOREMENTIONED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 105W-117W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOW LATITUDES NEAR 115W BY THU AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RATHER LIGHT SIDE DUE TO WEAKER SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SUN INTO MON AS WEAK COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER DISSIPATES ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO INCREASE FROM ABOUT 05N TO 10N W OF 125W WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT IN A MIX OF NW AND SE SWELL. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO PULSE INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WITH MAX WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT...MAINLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE GAP. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF GAP WIND FLOW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH NE-E WINDS OF 20- 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MORE NE...MITIGATING THE MORE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT INTO WED BY THE GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS. $$ AGUIRRE