000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120915 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT APR 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N92W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N105W TO 05N135W TO 06N140. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A VERY WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW LINGERING NEAR 28N131W WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW FOR THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE N OF 25N BUILDING EAST ACROSS 140W. THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM 20N120W TO OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST NEAR 17N105W. THIS HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 12N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO SW TO 00N115W. UPPER FORCING RELATED TO THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AFOREMENTIONED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOW LATITUDES ALONG 115W BY THU. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT S OF 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 100W. THIS VERIFIES WAVE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS INDICATING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT S OF 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. THIS INCLUDES RESIDUAL SHORT PERIOD SWELL FROM EARLIER TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO EVENTS...COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A MINOR COMPONENT OF NW SWELL. FARTHER EAST...FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO PULSE INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. REPORTS SEVERAL HOURS FROM LIBERIA (MRLB) COSTA RICA NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INDICATED GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...INDICATIVE OF NEAR GALE FORCE GRADIENT FLOW MIXING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING ASSISTED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY...BUT RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTING THE GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY...ALLOWING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WIND FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GAP WIND IMPULSES. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MORE NE...MITIGATING THE MORE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS. BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N131W...TRADE WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY SUBDUED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THIS IS STARTING TO CHANGE AS THE LOW DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WILL PERSIST FROM ROUGHLY 05N TO 10N W OF 125W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN A MIX OF NW AND SE SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN