000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT APR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 06N92W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
07N101W TO 05N115W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
75 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND W ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 
121W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL S OF 02N. BY SAT 
EVENING...SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR W AS 125W. 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.  

A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N134W. THIS LOW 
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY SAT...AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH. 
THE LOW PRES HAS DISRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KEEPING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK AND SUPPORTING 
TRADEWIND FLOW OF MAINLY 10 TO 15 FT. BY SAT A DEEP LAYER RIDGE 
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT. 
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL FRESHEN N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 15N BY EARLY 
SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT AND PREVAILING THROUGH 
MON. 

LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE 
WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE 
AFTERNOON. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH 
GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT.  

$$ 
AL