000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI APR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 06N88W TO 07.5N100W TO 04.5N118W 
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

WINDS HAVE FURTHER DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND 
ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND 
OF GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY BE THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND W ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. 
THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL S OF 02N. BY SAT 
EVENING...SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR W AS 125W. 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE 
WINDS IN THE 25 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT SUN 
AFTERNOON. 

A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N134W. THIS LOW 
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY SAT...AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH. 
THE LOW PRES HAS DISRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KEEPING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK AND SUPPORTING 
TRADEWIND FLOW OF MAINLY 10 TO 15 FT. BY SAT INTO SUN...A DEEP 
LAYER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH 
DAMPENS OUT. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL THEN FRESHEN N OF THE ITCZ TO 
NEAR 15N BY EARLY SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT AND 
PREVAILING THROUGH MON. 

$$ 
AL