000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111605 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI APR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N88W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 07N100W TO 05N111W TO 05N120W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 93W-95W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W
-128W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

STRONG N-NE WINDS EARLIER NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE CULPRIT HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR THE CULPRIT TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL DIMINISH 
TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
EARLY IN SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF GAP WINDS TO 
GALE FORCE MAY BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

FARTHER SOUTH...NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL PULSE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AND 
MON DURING THE DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT PULSES OF STRONG GAP FLOW 
SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.

A PLUME OF SHORT PERIOD NE AND E SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT 
GENERATED FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS REACHES 
AS FAR WEST AS 115W...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY AND NW 
SWELL. THIS PLUME WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT... 
ALTHOUGH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE FLOW TO 8 FT WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF 
03N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ENHANCED AREA OF 
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 93W-95W DUE TO MAINLY  TO ENHANCED LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE GAP WIND FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER 
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN SHARP UPPER TROUGH NE OF AREA 
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 
10N108W. 

A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N130W 
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST...REACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHERN BAJA AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY LATE SAT. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK 
1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N135W. THIS LOW WILL  
DECOUPLE FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY 
SAT...AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
LOW SE TO 27N132.5W TO 22N140W. THE LOW PRES IS BREAKING UP THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THUS KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH 
ONLY 10 TO 15 FT FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL CHANGE SAT INTO 
SUN AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE THEN 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE IS FORECAST 
TO BUILD FROM 32N133W TO 20N1115W. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE 
ACCORDINGLY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 
130W SAT THROUGH MON. 

$$ 
AGUIRRE