000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE APR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
                                    
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER MEXICO IN ITS 
WAKE AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS 
HAVE STARTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WITH WINDS 
RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE 
BY THIS EVENING THEN TO STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP WIND 
EVENT WILL SLOWLY START TO WIND DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STORM 
FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...THEN 
BELOW GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FINALLY 
DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N81W TO 05N92W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 08N106W TO 
04N135W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

DISSIPATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 38N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. LOW 
PRESSURE OF 1012 MB CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 28N142W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 120W. LINGERING 
SEAS TO 10 FT ARE FOUND FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF LINE 15N134W TO 12N118W TO 
03.4S98W. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT W OF LINE 30N138W TO 26N140W. 
THIS SWELL WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE NW WATERS WHILE 
SUBSIDING. BY THU AFTERNOON...COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT. 

THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM EVENT OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WILL BRING A 
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 25 KT BY WED MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 
WED NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE...AND MAY 
EVEN REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE EARLY THU MORNING. 

$$ 
AL