000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE APR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
                                    
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT LATE SEASON GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL STORM 
FORCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BEGIN 
TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL 
QUICKLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY WED AT 0000 UTC. COMPUTER MODELS 
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING WINDS UP TO 45-50 
KT BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 22-23 
FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORM FORCE WINDS. A STORM WARNING 
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THU 
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 
THU AFTERNOON. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A STRONG 
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N92W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
06N92W TO 03N110W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AREA W OF 120W 
WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM 06N136W TO 30N128W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS E OF 100W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST W OF THE NW 
CORNER EXTENDING FROM 30N141W TO 25N146W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT 
WILL PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE NW 
CORNER ON WED. A 1023 MB HIGH IS N OF THE NW CORNER NEAR 
35N129W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 16N107W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 07N TO 13N W OF 130W 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE...SOME 8 FT SW SWELL IS FROM 00N 
TO 3S BETWEEN 106W AND 120W.   

20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA FROM 25N TO 28N. SEAS ARE TO 7 FT. THESE WINDS AND 
SEAS ARE TO SUBSIDE IN 6 HOURS. 

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL TRAVERSE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND PRODUCE 
GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON 
WED AND THU.  
 
$$ 
FORMOSA