000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080238 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE APR 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY WED AT 0000 UTC. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING WINDS UP TO 45-50 KT BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 22-23 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORM FORCE WINDS. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THU MORNING. THEN...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 02N110W TO 03N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 02N132W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 7N137W TO NEAR 29N129W. A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM IS RIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM 28N140W TO ABOUT 27N128W WHERE WINDS DIMINISH TO 70 KT TO NEAR 15N120W. E OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N118W TO 10N115W...THEN THE TROUGH CONTINUES SE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 130W... INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 95W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 89W. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA A PARTS OF GUATEMALA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 130W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT. CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF AREA AND CROSSES NEAR 30N142W. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON TUE. A WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER NEAR 29N140W TO 28N138 TO 24N140W BY WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT. EXPECT SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WED. AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED MORNING...EXPECT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP REGIONS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY THU MORNING. $$ GR