000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON APR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
                                    
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT LATE SEASON GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL STORM 
FORCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO BLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE 
TO 30-40 KT WED AT 0000 UTC. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING WINDS TO 30-45 KT BY WED AT 0600 
UTC AND TO 40-50 KT BY WED AT 1200 UTC LIKELY WITH THE 
ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD UP TO 22-23 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORM FORCE 
WINDS. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THIS GAP 
WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY WED 
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THU MORNING. THEN...EXPECT WINDS TO 
FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS GAP 
WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 05N102W TO 07N120W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 
06N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.


...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 7N138W TO NEAR 29N129W. A 95-115 KT JETSTREAM IS 
RIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM 
27N140W TO ABOUT 26N130W WHERE WINDS DIMINISH TO 90 KT TO NEAR 
12N120W. E OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N118W TO 10N116W...THEN THE TROUGH 
CONTINUES SE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 111W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 130W... 
INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. FURTHER 
E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 95W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. 
THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 
35N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 
18N115W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS FROM 09N TO 14N W OF 132W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE NE AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS 
EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT. 

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS W OF AREA AND CROSSES NEAR 30N143W. 
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
ON TUE. A WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY BY LATE TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 
THE LOW CENTER NEAR 30N140W TO 28N137W TO 22N140W. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT. EXPECT SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW SWELL IN 
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 
 
$$ 
GR