000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON APR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1200 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
                                    
A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS 
WEEK. CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL START TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS REACHING 
MINIMAL STORM FORCE ON WED MORNING AND LASTING UNTIL WED 
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 20-22 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N77W TO 7N85W TO 6N92W. ITCZ FROM 6N92W TO 
5N120W TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 133W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
8N139W TO 29N129W. A 95-115 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 27N140W TO 
26N130W SE TO 14N123W.  AN UPPER TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N118W TO 10N118W. EXCEPT FOR 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 24N-26N W OF 131W MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 22N W OF 115W

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ITCZ AND THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 
ELY WINDS 20 KT FROM 4N-22N W OF 120W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 

A 1007 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 30N140W WED MORNING. SE-S 
WIND 20-25 KT E OF THE LOW N OF 25N W OF 138W WITH SEAS 8-9 FT.

$$
DGS