000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON APR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
                                    
THE BIG EVENT COMING UP THIS WEEK WILL BE A STRONG LATE SEASON   
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. CURRENTLY...THE GFS GLOBAL 
MODEL AND THE NAM REGIONAL MODEL...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT 
SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS COMMENCING TUE AT 1800 UTC...WITH WINDS 
REACHING MINIMAL STORM FORCE ON WED AT 0600 UTC AND LASTING 
UNTIL WED AT 1800 UTC. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THU 
AT 1800 UTC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 20-22 FT 
ACCORDING TO NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE 
INDUCED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE LATE MON INTO TUE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 07N92W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 07N92W TO 
05N100W TO 05N120W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AREA W OF 130W. 
FURTHER E...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF 25N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. A 50-100 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH 
AND EXTENDS FROM 15N115W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. THE JETSTREAM 
HAS BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE JETSTREAM CORE. 
FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 105W WITH AXIS 
ALONG 85W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
70W AND 105W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY OVER S MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS N OF THE NW CORNER NEAR 
37N129W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 15N106W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 130W 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. ANOTHER AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IS W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. THESE SEAS ARE 
TO LAST FOR LESS THAN 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO INCREASE TO 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR 
SEA OF CORTEZ BY TUE EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-6 FT.

A 1008 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 30N140W IN 48 HOURS MOVING 
E. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S FROM THE LOW TO 28N139W TO BEYOND 
25N140W. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL WILL BE N OF 25N W OF 138W. FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT.

$$ 
FORMOSA