000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070237 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON APR 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE BIG EVENT COMING UP THIS WEEK WILL BE A STRONG LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. CURRENTLY...THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM REGIONAL MODEL...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS COMMENCING TUE AT 1800 UTC...WITH WINDS REACHING MINIMAL STORM FORCE ON WED BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC... AT WHICH TIME THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 20-22 FT ACCORDING TO NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...A GALE WARNING WAS POSTED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE 1800 UTC HIGH SEAS ISSUANCE...AND A STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON BASED ON THE NEW COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON INTO TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N98W TO 06N115W TO 03N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR W PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY W OF 135W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING NEAR 28N123W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NW AND N OF AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER NW MEXICO AND THE NE PART OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 31N105W TO NEAR 25N122W. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A 90-105 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 110-130 KT. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JETSTREAM. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N...INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 12N90W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SE MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1026 HIGH PRES LOCATED NORTH OF AREA NEAR 36N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 18N112W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED W OF AREA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH TO NEAR 30N140W BY LATE MON. A LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL WATERS BY MON. $$ GR