000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN APR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 07N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM 07N93W TO 06N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 
108W AND 116W AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. A 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE 
AREA FROM 06.5N TO 08N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR W PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
AREA MAINLY W OF 135W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE AND 
EXTENDS FROM 31N105W TO NEAR 21N125W. A 90-105 KT JETSTREAM 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE 
WINDS INCREASE TO 110-130 KT. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JETSTREAM. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS NOTED ACROSS 
MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N...INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 12N90W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SE MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. 

A 1029 HIGH PRES LOCATED NORTH OF AREA NEAR 36N131W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 18N116W. THIS SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE 
AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TO NEAR 30N140W BY LATE MON. A 
LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE FAR 
NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT.
 
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
WIND EVENT. CURRENTLY...THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM 
REGIONAL MODEL...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GALE FORCE 
WINDS COMMENCING TUE AT 1800 UTC...WITH WINDS REACHING MINIMAL 
STORM FORCE ON WED BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...AT WHICH TIME  
THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS 
WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 20-22 FT ACCORDING TO NOAA WAVEWATCH 
MODEL. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED 
WITH THE 1800 UTC HIGH SEAS ISSUANCE. THIS LATE SEASON GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT 
PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON INTO TUE. 

$$
GR