000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN APR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N78W TO 5N90W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 5N90W TO 
4N125W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 111W-117W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 135W. AN UPPER TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 26N126W. A 90-105 KT 
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN 
MEXICO WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 115-125 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS N OF 22N W OF 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA WITH RIDGE N TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 110W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ITCZ AND THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 
ELY WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 10N-15N W OF 122W WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 

THE BIG EVENT COMING UP THIS WEEK WILL BE A GALE FOLLOWED BY A 
STORM THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A STRONG COLD FRONT 
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING A GALE BY TUE 
AFTERNOON...WITH A STORM BY EARLY MORNING WED. SEAS COULD 
INCREASE TO 22-23 FT WITH THE STORM FORCE WINDS.

$$
DGS