000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN APR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 05N110W TO 02N126W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF 
125W. FURTHER E...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE RIDGE 
AND TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 14N133W TO S TEXAS NEAR 26N99W. THE 
JETSTREAM HAS BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE JETSTREAM 
CORE. FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
09N90W. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W 
AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE ITCZ. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE NW CORNER NEAR 
33N134W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 14N107W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 122W 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. ANOTHER AREA OF NW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITH 8 
TO 9 FT SEAS IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N E OF 125W. THESE 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN ADDITION 
...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ BY TUE EVENING WITH BUILDING 
SEAS OF 5-6 FT.

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
WIND EVENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD 
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING A GALE BY TUE AT 1800 UTC...WITH 
A STORM BY WED AT 0600 UTC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS 
UP TO 22-23 FT ACCORDING TO WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. BASED ON MODEL 
GUIDANCE...A WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY. THIS LATE 
SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A 
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON 
INTO TUE. 

$$
FORMOSA