000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN APR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N85W TO 05N110W TO 04N128W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 102W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINLY N 
OF 20N W OF 130W. E OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N114W TO NEAR 25N133W. A 90-110 KT 
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 25N115W TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NW MEXICO...WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 130-150 KT. W TO SW WIND 
FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM 10N AND 20N W OF 115W AND FROM 
16N TO 25N E OF 115W...INCLUDING THE REGION BETWEEN CABO 
CORRIENTES AND SAN JOSE DEL CABO. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 13N95W WITH A RIDE EXTENDING NE 
OVER SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS OVER MOST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS 
IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION 
NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 92W.

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N134W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 18N112W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH PRES IS 
PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS MAINLY 
FROM 08N TO 21N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN A MIX OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL AND 
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. THE MOST 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS 
AND A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE 
AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE N MOVES 
NE AND WEAKENS. 

A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS 
INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA PARTICULARLY N OF 27N E OF 124W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT 
NEAR 30N. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH 
PRES. THIS NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUN. THEN...WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ BY SUN EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 
4-5 FT...AND WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 KT BY MON EVENING. 

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
WIND EVENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD 
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING A GALE BY TUE AT 1800 UTC...WITH 
A STORM BY WED AT 0600 UTC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS 
UP TO 22-23 FT ACCORDING TO WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. BASED ON MODEL 
GUIDANCE...A WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUN. THIS LATE 
SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A 
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE 
MON INTO TUE. 

$$
GR