000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051501
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT APR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
ITCZ AXIS 7N83W TO 5N110W TO 2N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 86W-94W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF DISCUSSION 
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W TO 25N128W. A 90-105 KT JETSTREAM 
EXTENDS FROM 21N125W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE WINDS 
INCREASE TO 120-140 KT. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 700 NM S OF 
THE JETSTREAM AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF THE JETSTREAM. 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
13N97W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN E 
OF 105W. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRES TO THE S AND THIS HIGH IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF ELY WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 10N-20N W OF 129W 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ANOTHER AREA OF NW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITH 
8 FT SEAS IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N E OF 116W. THESE 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN 
DECREASE MON. 

THE BIG EVENT COMING UP BY MID WEEK WILL BE A GALE FOLLOWED BY A 
STORM THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A STRONG COLD FRONT 
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING A GALE BY TUE 
NIGHT...WITH A STORM BY EARLY MORNING WED. 

$$
DGS