000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT APR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 06N86W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 06N86W TO 05N100W TO 04N110W TO 02N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 105W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENTERING THE NW CORNER N OF 20N 
W OF 130W. FURTHER E...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE 
RIDGE AND TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 15N140W TO CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N111W. THE JETSTREAM HAS BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE JETSTREAM CORE. FURTHER SE...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N98W. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 85W 
AND 115W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE NW CORNER NEAR 
33N139W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 14N106W.  THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 129W 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. ANOTHER AREA OF NW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITH 8 
TO 10 FT SEAS IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N E OF 116W. THESE 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION 
...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ BY SUN EVENING WITH BUILDING 
SEAS OF 4-5 FT...THEN WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 KT BY 
MON EVENING.

THE BIG EVENT COMING UP BY MID WEEK WILL BE A GALE FOLLOWED BY A 
STORM THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A STRONG COLD FRONT 
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING A GALE BY TUE 
NIGHT...WITH A STORM BY EARLY MORNING WED. 

$$
FORMOSA