000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT APR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N77W TO 06N86W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N86W TO 
06N95W 03N107W...THEN DISCONTINUOUS FROM 02N131W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 
84W AND 88W...AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 104W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO BEYOND 26N140W. A STRONG SW TO W FLOW 
IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 
19N...INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET 
STREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 110-130 KT. A WELL DEFINED BAND OF 
TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM AS 
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SE OF THE TROUGH...THERE IS AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N98W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE OVER 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ANOTHER RIDGE 
STRETCHING E OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR NICARAGUA/ 
COSTA RICA BORDER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE EPAC THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA WITH THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 07N85W WHERE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
SEEN.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM 30N120W TO 25N130W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT 
BEHIND THE TROUGH FRONT...BUT A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PROPAGATE SE 
ACROSS THE N WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES OF 
NW SWELL REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT.

A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE 
WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST 
REGION. THIS NW FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF BAJA SAT INTO SUN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD. 
EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT N OF 
26N E OF 122W BY LATE SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ BY SUN EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 
4-5 FT...THEN WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 KT BY MON 
EVENING.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N138W 
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N. SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST AT 
OR BELOW 8 FT IN LINGERING NW SWELL. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 128W 
WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN A MIX OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL AND 
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO TRADE WINDS. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF 
THE TRADES WILL INCREASE FARTHER E AS HIGH PRES MOVES EASTWARD 
TO NEAR 32N135W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. 

THE BIG ISSUE COMING UP BY MID WEEK WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF  
STRONG GALE OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY SHOWING AT LEAST A GALE BY TUE NIGHT...WITH THE GFS 
AS USUAL THE STRONGEST MODEL SHOWING STRONG GALE TO MINIMAL  
STORM FORCE WINDS. 

$$
GR