000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI APR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N90W TO 
03N114W...THEN DISCONTINUOUS FROM 02N131W TO BEYOND 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 136W 
AND 139W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE NEAR 31N121W THEN 
CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. A STRONG SW TO W FLOW IS NOTED 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 19N... 
INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. 
THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM 
WITH CORE WINDS OF 110-130 KT. A WELL DEFINED BAND OF TRANSVERSE 
HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM AS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY. SE OF THE TROUGH...THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 12N98W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHING E 
OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE EPAC THROUGH WESTERN 
PANAMA WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 07N86W WHERE SOME 
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM 30N123W TO 25N140W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT 
BEHIND THE TROUGH FRONT...BUT A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM. THIS SWELL EVENT 
WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA BY LATE SAT.

A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE 
WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST 
REGION. THIS NW FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF BAJA SAT INTO SUN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD. 
EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT N OF 
26N E OF 122W BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

HIGH PRES LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N140W WILL MAINTAIN 
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST AT OR BELOW 8 FT IN LINGERING NW 
SWELL. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE 
HIGH IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
MAINLY FROM 08N TO 21N W OF 130W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN A MIX OF 
LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO TRADE 
WINDS. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE FARTHER E 
AS HIGH PRES MOVES EASTWARD TO NEAR 32N135W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 
THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. 

THE BIG ISSUE COMING UP BY MID WEEK WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF  
STRONG GALE OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY SHOWING AT LEAST A GALE BY TUE NIGHT...WITH THE GFS 
AS USUAL THE STRONGEST MODEL SHOWING STRONG GALE TO MINIMAL  
STORM FORCE WINDS. 

$$
GR