000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI APR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 08N90W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N90W TO 
06N95W TO 06N105W TO 03N115W TO 05N134W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W.   

...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W 
OF 120W. A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS 
FROM 15N140W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N113W. THE 
JETSTREAM HAS BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE JETSTREAM 
CORE. FURTHER SE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N100W. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 18N BETWEEN 
90W-110W SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.  

THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER FROM 
30N129W TO 28N134W SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS 
WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NEW ROUND OF 
NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM. 

A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS ALONG 119W DEPICTED 8-9 FT SWELL WHILE A 
0516 UTC ASCAT SHOWED WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OFF THE W COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. LOOKING AHEAD...NW FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA SAT INTO SUN AS RIDGING BUILDS 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N144W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THIS HIGH IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 08N TO 19N 
W OF 136W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. 

A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY 
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. USUALLY...THE FINAL GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN 
THE GULF IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. CURRENTLY...COMPUTER 
MODELS SUGGEST WINDS REACHING STORM FORCE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
FORMOSA