000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI APR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 07N114W...THEN RESUMES AT 07N118W TO 
06N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
06N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 100W AND 
104W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE NW CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST REGION NEAR 30N130W THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 
23N140W. A STRONG SW TO W FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
AND DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 18N...INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 110-130 KT. A 
WELL DEFINED BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE JET STREAM AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SE OF THE 
TROUGH...THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N103W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO NEAR 08N90W. A RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA.  

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER 
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N130W TO 28N135W. THIS FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE FROM 30N122W TO 26N140W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS 
WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NEW ROUND OF 
NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM. 

A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE 
WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ALONG 27N OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. LOOKING AHEAD...NW FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA SAT INTO SUN AS RIDGING BUILDS 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N148W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 130W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT 
IN A MIX OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL DUE 
TO TRADE WINDS. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE 
FARTHER E IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES 
EASTWARD TO NEAR 32N140W BY LATE FRI.  

WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO 
THEN PULSE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH 
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE 
INDUCED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FINAL GALE-
FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY 
APRIL. CURRENTLY...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST WINDS REACHING GALE 
TO NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE 
EVENTS OCCURS IN DECEMBER. STORM-FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN 
IN JANUARY. SO...THIS IS FORECAST TO BE AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR 
EARLY APRIL.

$$
GR