000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU APR 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 08N114W THEN RESUMES AT 04N120W TO 05N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION AND EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO BEYOND 24N140W. SW TO W FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 18N AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT... BUT A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM. A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ALONG 27N OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOOKING AHEAD...NW FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA SAT INTO SUN AS RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N150W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN A MIX OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO TRADE WINDS. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE FARTHER E IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TO NEAR 32N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO THEN PULSE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE INDUCED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FINAL GALE- FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN TEHUANTEPEC IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. CURRENTLY...COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING GALE TO NEAR STORM FORCE. THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE EVENTS OCCURS IN DECEMBER. STORM-FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN IN JANUARY. SO...THIS IS FORECAST TO BE AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR APRIL. $$ GR