000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU APR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N87W TO 06N115W TO 02N133W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W AND BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

N OF 20N...BRISK CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE 
PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING 
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PRES 
BUILDING ALONG 27N OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
JET EXTENDS EASTWARD BETWEEN 20N AND 22N...BRINGING BROKEN MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE WAS REPORTED AT 
MAZATLAN...AND EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS AREA 
EXTENDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS...BUT ONLY OUT ABOUT 10 TO 15 NM 
AND IT APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. FARTHER 
WEST...RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NE 
TRADES PREVAIL FROM 20N TO 24N...BUT REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE N 
OF 24N INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. ALTIMETER DATA CONFIRMS WAVEWATCH 
III INITIALIZATIONS INDICATING SEAS REMAIN 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH 
OF THE WATERS BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...IN NW SWELL. WAVE GUIDANCE 
SHOWS THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT BELOW 8 FT. FLOW 
ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL BETWEEN A MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST 
THROUGH THE ROCKIES...AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE EXTENDING 
FROM 40N130W TO 25N140W TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A WEAK COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL 
SWEEP THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT 
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...NW FLOW WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA SAT INTO SUN AS RIDGING 
BUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT. 

S OF 20N...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS W OF 120W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A MIX OF LONGER 
PERIOD NW SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO TRADE WINDS. 
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS THE MAIN REASON FOR MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FLARING FROM FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

FARTHER EAST...WEAKENING RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
ALLOWING GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 
DIMINISH...WITH ONLY MODERATE GAP BREEZES EXPECTED TONIGHT. 

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW...BUT THIS 
IS ALREADY DISSIPATING.
 

$$
CHRISTENSEN