000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU APR 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 00N102W TO 05N109W TO 03N119W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N111W TO 10N121W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N86W TO 06N100W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N120W TO 08N129W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N113W TO A BASE AT 26N118W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 11N114W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A CREST NOW COLLAPSING SE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N129W DEFINED BY THIN ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE ALONG THIS RIDGE PERIPHERY. A WELL-DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME IS STREAMING ENE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N140W TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WHERE IT BEGINS TO TURN MORE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 08N93W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...BUT IS NOW DISSIPATING. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CRESTING ALONG THE PACIFIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COLOMBIA WITH CONVECTION FLARING OVER AND WITHIN 15 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 03-06N. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 04N92W. AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXISTS NW OF THIS CYCLONE AND TO THE S OF THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE AT 11N114W...AND IS IN PHASE WITH THE ITCZ AXIS AND SUPPORTING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E INTO THE AREA FROM 29N140W TO 16N107W. NW 15-20 KT WINDS CONTINUE NE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS N OF 23N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH 5-8 FT SEAS IN MIXING NW AND LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL. NW SWELL IS ALSO MIXING WITH S SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 115-133W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN THAT AREA. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N LATER TODAY AND FRI LOSING IDENTITY ON FRI NIGHT AS POST-FRONTAL NW SWELL/SEAS 7-8 FT...PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 28N AND E OF 130W. THE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-25N W OF 115W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXING NW...NE AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM 32N133W TO 13N102W ON SAT NIGHT... WITH THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE SUPPORTING NW WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 123W. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN SW OF THE RIDGE WITH THE NE TRADES INCREASING TO 20-25 KT NEAR 12N130W ON AT NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO THEN PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. $$ NELSON