000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU APR 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 04N102W TO 05N108W TO 02N116W TO 07N126W THEN RESUMES AT 06N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N AND W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N116W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 12N140W AND ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHING NE ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS RIDING ON THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 22N140W TO 23N125W CROSSING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N111W INTO WESTERN MEXICO. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM. A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N90W TO THE EQUATOR AT 93W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N152W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 19N W OF 130W AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT PER THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MAINLY FROM N OF 25N E OF 116W...AS NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE N WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TO NEAR 31N140W BY FRI EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP FROM 11N127W TO 05N129W. SOME INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS REACHING NEAR 130W-131W BY LATE THU. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW...ALONG WITH A MINOR CONTRIBUTION OF SOUTHERLY SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W...WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CAN BE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN EPAC E OF 110W. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW WATERS LATE THU BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NE-E 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT LATE TONIGHT. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO THEN PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. $$ GR